Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Kristine Jackson
Kristine Jackson

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in the UK betting industry, focusing on trends and player safety.