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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.