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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.