A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
